Russian Central Bank data released this week confirms what regional finance ministries have suspected for months: total remittance outflows to Central Asia from Russian-employed migrants fell 18% in the year ending February.
The drop is especially sharp for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, both of which depend on remittances for over a quarter of national GDP. Tajikistan’s central bank has already revised its 2026 growth forecast downward by 1.6 percentage points.
The drivers are mixed. Ruble depreciation accounts for roughly half the headline number; the rest is attributable to tightened Russian labour migration enforcement following the March 2024 Moscow concert hall attack.